Frequently Asked Questions

Is a donor the same as a control?

A donor is an eligible control geography that can contribute to a synthetic counterfactual. In code, power calls all non-treatment units controls. Preserve the eligibility distinction in design documentation.

Do donor recommendations flow into inference?

No. The pipeline runs stages independently. Filter and version the panel if the donor screen changes the eligible universe, then rerun affected stages.

Is GeoSC power simulation-based?

Yes. It estimates a factor-VAR DGP from the pre-period, simulates post-periods, injects effects, calls SparseSC, and counts p-values below alpha. It is more computationally intensive than a closed-form MDE but not automatically more accurate.

Does power use the complete inference workflow?

No. It uses the SparseSC estimator and detection rule inside simulation but has a narrower configuration and does not run inference data policies, cooldown, assumption gates, or result processing.

Why can estimated power decrease at a larger effect or duration?

Finite Monte Carlo estimates can fluctuate. Large reversals can also indicate failures, coarse placebo support, a weak DGP, or specification sensitivity. Increase simulations and investigate; do not label an empirical rolling-window diagnostic a theoretical monotonic power curve.

What does MDE mean here?

For a duration, it is the smallest valid effect on the tested grid reaching configured target_power. It is not expected campaign lift and is not interpolated.

How is a relative effect injected?

GeoSC multiplies one pooled mean across treated units and all pre-periods by the relative effect, then adds the same absolute path to each treated unit.

What does valid mean in power output?

At least one simulation succeeded and failure rate did not exceed the threshold. It says nothing about DGP plausibility or causal identification.

What is the top-level inference p-value?

It is a two-sided, add-one-corrected in-space placebo p-value for the absolute average post-period effect. It is not a post/pre MSPE-ratio p-value.

Can a small donor pool produce significance?

Only at the resolution allowed by its effective placebo count. The smallest step is 1 / (n_placebos + 1) under the implemented calculation.

Does status: ok prove the campaign caused lift?

No. It means the software result contract completed. Identification depends on eligibility, isolation, measurement, timing, pre-fit, and sensitivity evidence.

Does GeoSC calculate ROI or iROAS?

No. Combine a defensible incremental outcome with campaign cost and the correct commercial value or margin definition downstream.

Does GeoSC support GPU inference?

No. Optional CuPy work is limited to supported unseeded power DGP paths. Seeded power and main SparseSC inference are CPU-based.